Contract prices for monomers and, ultimately, polyolefins, have predictably moved down in Poland in December. The average HDPE quote has gone €35 - 55/t down this week, with the lower end of the range reaching €1,000/t.
Film LDPE has fallen in price by €75/t and €180/t since last week and last month, respectively, to €1,020 - 1,080/t. C4 LLDPE has been quoted at the same level as LDPE this week.
Among PP grades, block copolymers have sustained the largest price cuts this week. They have cost €1,075 - 1,185/t, €60/t and €145/t less than a week and a month ago respectively. The off-grade material has been quoted at €950 - 970/t.
Market players have reported rather strong interest in HDPE, especially from the pipe industry. LLDPE and PP buying has been unchanged, and LDPE has been the least popular with Polish converters this week. Most of them have been booking batches for January delivery.
The random PP copolymer and off-grade HDPE segments have been tight lately."This month, I have received only one offer for PP random", a Polish trader has informed.
Producers will shut their facilities early this month for the festive season. "Many companies will have the last working day of this year on 22 December and we will align ourselves with our customers", a trader has said. Demand is forecast to stay at the current level until end-December. However, some traders hope that yet another possible round of price decreases will keep it up next week. "Traders may offer the remainder of their stocks at even lower prices than now", a market player has commented.
Several factors will dictate the January price trend. So, OPEC's decision to cut crude oil output in early 2024 may cause a rebound in quotes for prime virgin polyolefins. On the other hand, increased purchasing activity this month may affect pricing next month. "In January, there will be deliveries of the goods bought in December, so we should not expect an immediate increase in both demand and prices at the very beginning of the year", a market player has explained.
The outlook for 2024 is optimistic. Market analysts say stocks levels are record low across the polyolefin value chain. "Market recovery will begin, but it is difficult to predict today how strong and sustainable this growth will be."
