Converters, as usual, have been sluggish in the market in late October. All of its players have been waiting for new price announcements. Traders told Chem-Courier that European producers, even those that typically have enough goods in stock for spot sale through a month, have closed order books too early this time. PE availability has been sufficient.
The situation looks different in the PP market. Market players have reported a shortage of PP random copolymers and homopolymers and a surplus of block copolymers. Amid high availability, imported PP block copolymers have been available at €1,220/t DDP, which is €30/t below quotes for than the European goods, this week. Prices for all other PP grades have been unchanged.
The November pricing will depend on several factors. The first one, as usual, is contract prices for monomers. Ethylene and propylene are forecast to get €50/t and €60/t cheaper, according to Chem-Courier’s data. However, some market players believe that even if monomers depreciate, polyolefin producers will hardly reduce their prices.
Demand will definitely be a decisive factor, but market players are split on the matter. Some believe that it will be lower in November than a month earlier, which will lead to a price decrease. Others think the opposite. Converters may opt to restock for several months ahead of traditional PE and PP production cuts in December, which may result in undersupply of the commodities. A rise in electricity costs forecast for January is already widely discussed in Poland as well.
Another factor that may push LDPE and LLDPE quotes down next month is a predicted surplus of the US materials. The traders selling them in Poland expect a price drop in November. If demand remains low, these companies will be forced to sell off their goods and the European ones will fall in value, Chem-Courier believes.
